Beware of these 3 Myths in the Fed Budget by Martin Udogie

In 1967, in a paper titled Socialism and Rural Development, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania laid out his proposals to establish self-sufficient socialist villages across the country. In what was to become a “villagising” movement, he began compelling people to live and work in the village, declaring that “To live in a village is an order”.



“Between 1973 and 1977, some 11 million people were placed in new villages, in what amounted to the largest mass movement in Africa’s history.



It was a disastrous policy that the country is still reeling from today.



At about the same time, Singapore was modernizing its country, also forcefully herding people, including farmers with their chickens or pigs, petty traders, the poor, etc into gleaming skyscrapers.



Today, Singapore, with just 4 million people, is richer than Britain having grown its GDP per capita from about $300 to over $35,000.



That Agriculture holds the key to Nigeria’s economic transformation is one of the three myths I address in my article that will appear in Business Day, tomorrow, Friday, October 26. You can lso access it online at www.buinessdayonline.com.



If our agriculture strategy is aimed at cutting our high import bill, then it is a sound policy. But it is NOT the solution to youth unemployment. This is because no graduate youth, having spent 4 – 5 years in the university, will go back to subsistence farming. It will not happen. And commercial farming is NOT labour intensive.



As I always say, don’t take my word for it. Let’s hear from the experts who have studied this phenomenon:



Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner in their book, Super Freaknomics write as follows:



“In the late 18th Century America, it took 19 out of 20 workers to feed the country’s inhabitants and provide a surplus for export, according to economist Milton Friedman. Two hundred years later, only 1 of 20 American workers was needed to feed a larger population, while also making the United States the largest single exporter of food in the world.”



What happened? Agricultural revolution gave way to the industrial Revolution.



China is also copying and pasting, the Singaporean strategy. “There is no better way of generating economic growth and raising per capita income than generating industrial jobs for rural inhabitants. That’s exactly what happened in China during the last two decades, as peasants left their fields to work in the factories of the eastern and southern coasts.” – from The China Strategy by Edward Tse.



Look out for Business Day tomorrow, Friday, October 26th for the full article.



Happy holidays!



Martin Udogie

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Martin Udogie is Founder & Publisher of BottomLINE Newsletter based in Nigeria.



Readers can contact him directly by email through: udogie@yahoo.com